A member of ALTADENA GROUP
CSIA Foundation

 Analyst's note:  Absolutely must read (http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/bg2491.pdf) and carefully consider.  The almost unimaginable impact of such an attack or even a possible natural event could turn the entire nation that is America and much of Canada into a recent Haiti-like situation.  The impact on America would make the recent events in Haiti look like a "yard party" in comparison to the impact of America.

William R. Graham, chairman of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack provided the following insight:

"Several potential adversaries have the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear-weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse, and others appear to be pursuing efforts to obtain that capability."

"A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. For example, an adversary would not have to have long-range ballistic missiles to conduct an EMP attack against the United States. Such an attack could be launched from a freighter off the U.S. coast using a short- or medium-range missile to loft a nuclear warhead to high altitude. Terrorists sponsored by a rogue state could attempt to execute such an attack without revealing the identity of the perpetrators. Iran, the world's leading sponsor of international terrorism, has practiced launching a mobile ballistic missile from a vessel in the Caspian Sea. Iran has also tested high-altitude explosions of the Shahab-III, a test mode consistent with EMP attack, and described the tests as successful. Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States. While the commission does not know the intention of Iran in conducting these activities, we are disturbed by the capability that emerges when we connect the dots."

[....] For the past decade, the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack, chaired by Dr. William R. Graham, has investigated the EMP threat to the United States and how it can be reduced. The commission’s specific areas of analysis have included:

  • “the nature and magnitude of potential high-altitude EMP threats to the United States from all potentially hostile states or non-state actors that have or could acquire nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles enabling them to perform a high-altitude EMP attack against the United States within the next 15 years;
  • “the vulnerability of United States military and especially civilian systems to an EMP attack, giving special attention to vulnerability of the civilian infrastructure as a matter of emergency preparedness;
  • “the capability of the United States to repair and recover from damage inflicted on United States military and civilian systems by an EMP attack”; and
  • “the feasibility and cost of hardening select military and civilian systems against EMP attack.”[8]

The Graham commission’s bottom line is that an EMP attack will put an end to the functioning of the U.S. electrical infrastructure and much of the hardware that runs everyday life.

The Heritage Report confirmed the above statements statements.

"Abstract:  Most Americans—whether members of the public or politicians in Congress—ignore or are unaware of the very real threat of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. A nuclear device detonated high in the atmosphere above the American mainland can easily disable the country’s electrical grid—shutting down nearly all communications, transportation, and service systems. Overnight, daily life as Americans know it will be a thing of the past. There are ways to prevent devastation from an EMP — and the U.S. must invest in them now before it is too late. Two of the country’s preeminent national security experts explain how to prevent the worst.

  1. An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack represents one of the greatest threats imaginable—to the United States and the world.
  2. The largest vulnerability in the country’s electrical grid is the power-transmission infrastructure, which will suffer significant damage under an EMP attack and is extremely difficult to repair.
  3. While the banking infrastructure was designed to withstand a wide range of threats, it was not designed to withstand a complete communications shutdown.
  4. An EMP attack would heavily damage the U.S. transportation sector, which would significantly impair recovery efforts in the wake of an attack.
  5. The delivery of aid in a chaotic post-strike environment will be impossible without robust pre-disaster planning that integrates federal, state, local, private-sector, non-governmental organizations, and international support.

[....] Time to Act

Recent disasters suggest an important to-do list for handling EMP threats:

  • Prevent the threat. Regardless of the mitigation and response measures, a massive EMP impact could have a devastating impact on the United States. Washington must pursue an aggressive protect-and-defend strategy, including comprehensive missile defense; modernizing the U.S. nuclear deterrent; and adopting proactive nonproliferation and counterproliferation measures, both unilaterally and in partnership with allies.
  • Provide resilience. Measures must be adopted to ensure the resilience of the U.S.–Canadian electrical grid and telecommunications systems, including developing limited redundancy and identifying means for the timely replacement of essential damaged parts or their rapid substitution.
  • Plan for the unthinkable. The U.S. must have robust pre-disaster planning—with practical exercises that include top officials who rehearse a wide variety of contingency scenarios—that integrates federal, state, local, private-sector, non-governmental organizations, and international support.
  • Protect the capacity to communicate. The U.S. must have the means to establish assured emergency broadcast as well as interactive communications both within the U.S. and across the globe. An EMP strike can easily obliterate America’s electrical, telecommunications, transportation, financial, food, and water infrastructures, rendering the United States helpless to coordinate actions and deliver services essential for daily life. In the words of Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, EMP “is one of only a few ways that the United States could be defeated by its enemies.[48] The time to prepare is now.

[....] "Even with farsighted mitigation measures there is little question that a nationwide EMP attack would be crippling.," [....] "Thus, while pursuing mitigation, the U.S. should take all possible measures to protect and defend the nation against a ballistic-missile attack that could be used to deliver an EMP strike, as well as pursue aggressive counter-proliferation measures against rogue states developing nuclear weapons."

[....] "Airplanes would literally fall from the sky, cars and trucks would stop working, and water, sewer, and electrical networks would fail. Food would rot, medical services would collapse, and transportation would become almost nonexistent,"

[....] "The equipment used in the transmission grid is costly, specially produced, and has to be ordered from overseas […] Those with the expertise to replace transformers and capacitors are likely to be overwhelmed […]"

 

[1]John S. Foster, Jr., et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack,” Vol. 1: Executive Report, 2004, United States EMP Commission, p. 4, at http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf (November 9, 2010).

[2]Clay Wilson, “High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and High Power Microwave (HPM) Devices: Threat Assessments,” Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, July 21, 2008, p. 13, at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32544.pdf (November 9, 2010).

[3]Foster et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack,” p. 14.

[4] Ibid., p. 6.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid., pp. 1–12.

[7] Ibid., p. 18.

[8]“Charter,” in Foster et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack,” p. iii.

[9]William R. Graham et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures,” April 2008, at http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf (November 13, 2010).

[10] Ibid., p. 1.

[11] Ibid., p. 49.

[12]“The New York City Blackout of July 13, 1977,” Hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy and Power, Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce, U.S. House of Representatives, October 13, 1977, p. 5, at http://blackout.gmu.edu/archive/pdf/hearing001_050.pdf (November 9, 2010).

[13]SCI Systems Control, Inc., “Impact Assessment of the 1977 New York Blackout,” Energy Systems Division, July 1978, pp. 3, 14, at http://blackout.gmu.edu/archive/pdf/impact_77.pdf (November 9, 2010).

[14]James Goodman, Blackout (New York: North Point Press, 2003), p. 51.

[15]“The Blackout: Night of Terror,” Time, July 25, 1977, pp. 12–22, at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,919089-1,00.html (November 9, 2010).

[16]Goodman, Blackout, p. 113.

[17]“Major Power Outage Hits New York, Other Large Cities,” CNN, August 14, 2003, at http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/08/14/power.outage (November 9, 2010), and The Electricity Consumers Resource Council, “The Economic Impacts of the August 2003 Blackout,” February 9, 2004, at http://www.elcon.org/Documents/EconomicImpactsOfAugust2003Blackout.pdf (November 9, 2010).

[18]Foster et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack,” pp. 91–92.

[19]“Banking and Finance: Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources Sector-Specific Plan as Input to the National Infrastructure Protection Plan,” Departments of Homeland Security and the Treasury, May 2007, p. 22, at http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/nipp-ssp-banking.pdf (November 9, 2010).

[20]Foster et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack,” pp. 83–94.

[21]“Energy: Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources Sector-Specific Plan as Input to the National Infrastructure Protection Plan,” Departments of Homeland Security and Energy, May 2007, p. 24, at http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/nipp-ssp-energy-redacted.pdf (November 9, 2010).

[22]Foster et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack,” pp. 105–128.

[23] Ibid., p. 107.

[24] Ibid., p. 124.

[25] Ibid., pp. 116–122.

[26]Graham et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack: Critical National Infrastructures,” p. 133.

[27]Fred C. Pampel, Disaster Response (New York: Facts on File, 2008), p. 47.

[28]Douglas Brinkle, The Great Deluge: Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast (New York: Harper Perennial, 2007), p. 201.

[29]Pampel, Disaster Response, p. 49.

[30]Richard D. Knabb, Jamie R. Rhome, and Daniel P. Brown, “Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Katrina, August 23–30, 2005,” National Hurricane Center, December 20, 2005, p. 12, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf (November 9, 2010), and Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, “Hurricane Katrina: Deceased Reports, Reports of Missing and Deceased,” August 2, 2006, at http://www.dhh.louisiana.gov/offices/page.asp?ID=192&Detail=5248 (November 9, 2010).

[31]Foster et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack,” p. 78.

[32] Ibid., pp. 62–82.

[33] Ibid.

[34] Ibid., p. 67.

[35] Ibid., p. 66.

[36] Ibid., p. 68.

[37]J. A. Van Allen and L. A. Frank, “Radiation Around the Earth to a Radial Distance of 107,400 KM,” Nature, Vol. 183 (February 14, 1959), p. 433.

[38]Foster et al., “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack,” p. 163.

[39]“Haiti Death Toll Rises to 230,000,” BBC News, February 11, 2010, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8507531.stm (November 9, 2010).

[40]Clarens Renois, “Haitians Angry Over Slow Aid,” The Age, February 5, 2010, at http://www.theage.com.au/world/haitians-angry-over-slow-aid-20100204-ng2g.html (November 9, 2010).

[41]Christopher Rhoads, “Quake Sets Back Haiti’s Efforts to Improve Telecommunications,” The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2010, at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703657604575005453223257096.html (November 9, 2010).

[42]“Haiti-Earthquakes–January 2010,” United Nations, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, September 29, 2010, at http://fts.unocha.org/reports/daily/ocha_R10_E15797_asof___1009291517.pdf (September 29, 2010).

[43]FOX News, “US Spearheads Global Response to Haiti Earthquake,” January 13, 2010, at http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/13/spearheads-global-response-haiti-earthquake/ (September 29, 2010).

[44]Reuters, “US Takes Control of Haiti Airport to Speed Aid,” January 15, 2010, at http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1513622820100116?type=marketsNews (September 29, 2010).

[45]“Haiti Will Not Die, President Preval Insists,” BBC News, February 12, 2010, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8511997.stm (November 9, 2010).

[46]Renois, “Haitians Angry over Slow Aid.”

[47]Simon Romero and Marc Lacey, “Government Struggles to Exhume Itself,” The New York Times, January 15, 2010, at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/16/world/americas/16preval.html?_r=3&hp (November 9, 2010).

[48]Jon Kyl, “Unready for This Attack,” The Washington Post, April 16, 2005, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57774-2005Apr15.html (November 9, 2010).

 

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