Analyst's note: Absolutely must read. The United States is still lacking a clear forward, coherent strategy to deal with Iran and seemingly too distracted with domestic events to include critical economic issues to develop one. We can be sure that one of the critical impacts of the events described here will be to weaken economically the United States even more ... all at a time when our national security is "on-the-ropes" thanks to our federal government in Washington, D.C.
If Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, US Army (Ret) is correct, and I think he is, the U.S. will soon have even more cause for concern as the resulting unemployment and higher prices continue to grow with the increase in gas prices and decrease in supplies of goods and services. This is all exacerbated by our lack of a proper strategy against our Islamist enemy and our seeming inability to control our own economic affairs.
All this while we have unnecessarily, ever increasing ties to foreign powers for the basic commodity on which our entire infrastrature depends ... that of oil. As we've pointed out here before, Saudi Arabia, one of the major suppliers of oil to the U.S., is the ultimate target for Iran to "manage" and then to control what Iran calls the "Great Satan." This will make it even easier to go after Israel, the other popular Middle East target.
"Something extraordinary is happening in the Persian Gulf region as we predicted in our first series of the global Chessboard in 2010. The United States is still lacking a clear forward, coherent strategy to deal with Iran and seemingly too distracted with domestic events and issues to develop one.
[....] Ironically, Iran owes its thanks for this historic opportunity to its two main adversaries; one are the Wahhabi Sunnis of al Qaeda infamy who carried out the 9/11 attacks and the other “Great Satan” that brought down Saddam Hussein. I will predict that Iran will succeed in filling a major power void in Iraq unless stopped this year by Israel. Iran is a country that touches six Middle Eastern powers and demographically favors the Shia, Iran would theoretically have its western flank secured as well as an oil-rich outlet with which to further project its influence.
[....] So far, Iran’s plan is on track. Unless the United States and Israel takes action, Iran replaces the United States as the most powerful military force in the Persian Gulf region. In particular, Iran has the military ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and has a clandestine network of operatives spread across the globe (as far as Venezuela). Through its deep penetration of the Iraqi government, Iran is also in the best position to influence Iraqi decision-making. Washington’s obvious struggle in trying to negotiate an extension of the U.S. deployment in Iraq is perhaps one of the clearest illustrations of Iranian resolve to secure its flanks.
[....] While Iran already is well on its way to accomplishing its goals in Iraq, it needs two other key pieces to complete Tehran’s picture of a regional “indigenized security arrangement” that Vahidi spoke of. The first is an understanding with its main military challenger in the region, the United States. Such an understanding would entail everything from ensuring Iraqi Sunni military impotence to expanding Iranian energy rights beyond its borders to placing limits on U.S. military activity in the region, all in return for the guaranteed flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and an Iranian pledge to stay clear of Saudi oil fields.
The second piece is an understanding with its main regional adversary, Saudi Arabia. Iran’s reshaping of Persian Gulf politics entails convincing its Sunni neighbors that resisting Iran is not worth the cost, especially when the United States does not seem to have the time or the resources to come to their aid. No matter how much money the Saudis throw at Western defense contractors, any military threat by the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council states against Iran will be hollow without other active Arab military commitment. Iran’s goal, therefore, is to coerce the major Sunni powers into recognizing an expanded Iranian sphere of influence at a time when U.S. security guarantees in the region are starting to erode. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, dubious of U.S. capabilities and intentions toward Iran, appears to be inching reluctantly toward an accommodation with its Persian adversary and away from the United States. It appears that the Saudis have had enough of Obama and Hillary Clinton plus a bevy of Middle East envoys who travel and talk a lot but never experience any forward or constructive action.
[....] The Saudis cannot fully trust U.S. intentions at this point. The United States has three basic interests: to maintain the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, to reduce drastically the number of forces it has devoted to fighting wars with Sunni Islamist militants (who are also by definition at war with Iran), and to try to reconstruct a balance of power in the region that ultimately prevents any one state — whether Arab or Persian — from controlling all the oil in the Persian Gulf.
More immediately, we must take into account how inherently vulnerable a U.S. military presence in Iraq (not to mention the remaining diplomatic presence) is to Iranian conventional and unconventional means.
[....] Iran can thus be expected to make a variety of demands, all revolving around the idea of Sunni recognition of an expanded Iranian sphere of influence — a very difficult idea for Saudi Arabia to swallow. The Iranian defense minister Vahidi is seeking to convey to fellow Iranians and trying to convince the Sunni Arab powers that a U.S. security guarantee in the region does not hold as much weight as it used to, and that with Iran now filling the void, the United States will face a difficult time trying to maintain its existing military installations.
[....] Iran has been planning major preemptive actions against Israel from southern Lebanon for many years now and they are now capable of implementing multiple strikes on major Israeli commercial and military airports, facilities/installations, cities, and towns. These strikes will not be the feeble ones of 2006, but far more lethal.Hezbollah and Iran have effectively set much in place, specifically, a plan that now appears ready for launch. Israel must take preemptive action before it is too late and the US must support Israel more than ever.
[....] The change in the pieces on the Chess Board is virtually complete and the puppet master is winning because of the weakness of the UN and the pathetic, inept leadership of the current White House and State Department.
[....] Finally, the Wall Street Journal reports that according to U.S. officials, al-Qaeda under Ayman al-Zawahiri may shift its emphasis to targeting American or Western interests abroad, rather than in the West.
So the chessboard is set by Iran. They have the puppet strings on all the chess pieces in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Venezuela, Libya, Lebanon; all while Russia, the USA, China, and western nations posture. Iran is an adept Puppet Master now and the Chess Master (and we and others have allowed it to happen!).
Next move…. CHECKMATE!
