Analyst's note: Our friend and associate John Bernard recently provided further insight regarding the disasters associated with the COIN (counter-insurgency) theory being used today in the Middle East. Bernard's take on Gens. Petraeus and McChrystal, changing the ROEs (rules of engagement) are treated here in a extraordinarily thoughtful discussion here and in An Interview with John Bernard that we referenced in a STRATFOR article called "Never Fight a Land War in Asia." See the embedded URLs herein for additional insight.
As the American citizens who do the fighting and the funding, we should consider what John is saying here as he speaks about the dangers and disasters with the counter-insurgency strategy now being used to "protect" our United States. He has certainly earned the right to be heard. John Bernard spent 26 years in the USMC, both active and reserve and has spent 47 years in the trade. He believes we have an innate responsibility to defend these shores, it's citizenry and especially the US Constitution and further believes the oath he took IS UNTO DEATH. One of his children, a son was KIA (killed in action) in Dahaneh 08/14/09).
"It requires vast resources and large numbers of troops that outstrip the interest. Low-cost counter-insurgency with insufficient forces will always fail. Since the United States uses limited forces because it has to, counterinsurgency is the most dangerous kind of war for the United States. The idea has always been that the people prefer the U.S. occupation to the threats posed by their fellow countrymen and that the United States can protect those who genuinely do prefer the former. That may be the idea, but there is never enough U.S. force available."
They just can't get it; No amount of counter intelligence effort or CIA insertion can be deep enough - or broad enough to determine this to be true. We have no history there, no familial ties, no understanding of their religious doctrine, no fundamental-from-birth understanding of either their language(s) or their tribal bindings. Suggesting there was a way to implement a Malaya style counter insurgency presence there is naive or just plain blinding. It is really a form of vanity and pride; 'I can do what all others have failed to'. The fact is; it is a crap shoot. Forget gambling and go with what you know. The one thing that is sure is man's limit where pain is concerned. Exert enough painful force and he will eventually yield; even the 'peaceful' Muslims.
Of course the real issue is that the great pontificators are all too willing to put someone else's ass where their theories are and they are largely insulated from the realities and fruit of their presumptions. There was only ever, one way to deal with the identified existential threat and this government - regardless of the color of the majority in power, who does not have the will; they don't have the will because they do not have the moral authority; they do not have the moral authority because they have not yielded themselves, personally, to any authority outside themselves. It is largely a case of individuals seeking fame and fortune at the cost of their constituencies and the blood of the current generation while listening to the advice of deftly placed operatives of the enemy.
Given that; how do you conceive of a victory?"
Like John, I believe that our Warriors must be provided the tools and freedom they need to prosecute this war to its logical conclusion -- victory over the enemy. This must be done in a way as to provide our Warriors with the best chance for survival.
I further suggest that all federal level politicians who vote for war, and their supporting staff, should be possible participants in the said war. All their names should be entered into a pool from which 90% are drawn by a contingent of U.S. Marines. A few politicians need to be left in D.C. to help those newly elected to fill their positions find the "head."
Once so identified, these politicians MUST participate in the balance of the war and fighting at the front as a private in the U.S. Marine Corps. There must be no exceptions. Valid medical excuses that may arise from time to time will remain "in theater" as close to the front as possible. Those who survive the war, may reclaim their elected postion once the war is over. This would produce some strain on your Marines, but one that can handled.
Semper Fidelis
