Analyst's note:  As usual, a fascinating and informative read from Dr. Roy Beck with supporting numbers.

"A bold college student politely asked me an interesting question during my presentation this morning to university students from around the country.

She said she -- like many students in the auditorium -- had worked passionately for the DREAM Act amnesty. She said they now are so discouraged and want to know what advice I could give that would offer them hope for passing the amnesty in the future.

But the numbers I provided the students about the changed composition of the House of Representatives sworn in today was not cause for much hope for amnesty supporters.

Look at the numbers I extrapolated from the assessment our NumbersUSA staff made about every one of the 435 Members sworn into the House today . . . .

226 -- If everybody had voted on the DREAM Act just before Christmas, it would have gotten 226 YES votes (actual tally was 216).

208 -- And 208 Members of that Lame Duck Congress would have voted NO (actual tally was 198).

But if the DREAM Act was brought up for a vote in the new Congress today, I think these would likely be the numbers:

174 -- Those who would vote YES.

261 -- Those who would vote NO.

Talk about discouraging to the pro-amnesty set!

And this 174-261 failed vote on the DREAM amnesty would likely to be the closest the Expansionists could get to a majority because the DREAM amnesty was by far the most publicly popular piece of the much-touted "comprehensive immigration reform" that couldn't even get the time of day in the Congress that just ended.

SO WHAT ARE THE NEW NUMBERS FOR PASSING ENFORCEMENT BILLS IN THE HOUSE?

Keep in mind that the majority of the House is 218. That's what it takes to pass something (or kill something if everybody votes).

The hard-core Expansionists in the House have dropped from 151 to 134. These are the people who not only want a blanket amnesty for all illegal aliens but also want to increase the number of permanent foreign workers brought into the country.

The soft-core Expansionists have also dropped, from 75 to 40. These are the kind of Members that pushed the DREAM amnesty just over the line to pass in December. Most of these types aren't very excited about a mass amnesty and they definitely are not committed to importing more foreign workers. It will take some work by the constituents in their Districts, but I think many of these pro-DREAM-amnesty Representatives can be persuaded to vote for enforcement bills that will move illegal aliens out of their jobs so that unemployed Americans can have them. But the good news is that we don't actually need any of them to pass the enforcement bills because of the next numbers I'll give you.

73 Members of the new House took the NumbersUSA survey and pledged to support every enforcement measure and every reduction in legal immigration advocated by NumbersUSA.

That is up from 35 in the old Congress.

They combine with others to add up to 113 hard-core Reductionists who not only lead the way for the toughest enforcement measures but want reduction in legal immigration.

But 113 is still a long way from 218. The 113 have to provide the energy and leadership to pull another 105 with them if the House is to pass reduction/enforcement bills this year.

Fortunately, there are 148 other Members who are anti-amnesty and pro-enforcement. Nearly all of them range between strongly committed enforcement champions and lightly committed. But they have shown little sign of understanding how important it is to reduce the level of legal immigration. I don't think we have to worry about them being pulled into any kind of amnesty camp. But all of you who live in their Districts have your work cut out for you to persuade them to join our 113 hard-core Reductionists in ending the Visa Lottery, in ending Chain Migration, in ending Birthright Citizenship and in ending massive importation of specific foreign workers for jobs that unemployed Americans would like to have.

WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SENATE?

Everything is just as dismal for amnesty supporters in the Senate as in the House. But passing tough enforcement bills is not going to be easy for us.

55 -- The DREAM amnesty could get only 55 YES votes in the Senate in December, five short of the 60 needed to pass.

45 -- If all Senators had voted, there would have been 45 NO votes.

Because only one-third of Senators were up for re-election, voters were not able to change the Senate as much as they changed the House. But I think if the DREAM vote were held today in the NEW Senate, these would be the numbers:

50 -- The YES votes would fall 10 short of the 60 needed.

50 -- The NO votes would tie.

Again, remember that this would be on the most popular slice of the pro-amnesty Expansionist agenda.

What would happen if strong enforcement legislation could come to the floor of the Senate?

Majority Leader Reid (D-Nev.) wouldn't allow enforcement legislation to receive votes during the last Congress. If he had, I believe the vote might have been 52 YES and 48 NO.

In the NEW Senate, I believe we have a very good shot at passing tough enforcement legislation with 60 YES votes and only 40 NO votes.

However, all of you will have to apply immense pressure to first of all force Majority Leader Reid to allow votes on enforcement, which is unlikely to happen unless Minority Leader McConnell (R-Ky.) becomes a true champion of enforcement.

We can only win on the floor if all 47 Republicans buck the Chamber of Commerce and vote for the enforcement. A tall order. But we have seen this kind of success at times in the past when Republicans feel enough public pressure from the grassroots.

If we get the 47 Republicans, we will need 13 Democrats.

I think we have six strong Democrats right off the bat -- the six who opposed the DREAM amnesty.

But what a fight we have on our hands this year in persuading the last seven needed to reach 60 votes. I can see the scenario, but it won't be easy.

If you are pro-amnesty, the numbers in the new Congress have turned totally against you.

But the new numbers aren't guaranteeing that we can win, either."

ROY BECK is Founder & CEO of NumbersUSA

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