Analyst's note: Absolutely must read. An electromagnetic threat is in my opinion the greatest strategic threat we have to this nation ... it can come from nature or by man. A single electromagnetic pulse could disable the entire United States, destroy America's critical infrastructure and reduce the US to a state of starvation and anarchy overnight. I highly recommend you read The Club-K: A Deadly Pandoras Box of Cruise Missiles and do an internal site search on the term "Electromagnetic Pulse". You will also want to read America has AT MOST 33 mins from launch to impact: Then total silence by The Heritage Foundation and A Game-Changing Weapon ... ~90% dead in months.
Our government has known about this threat for at least 50 years. The threat includes more than an enemy with a nuclear bomb and a cheap launching system. It is also known to include the sun's geomagnetic blast (7% risk in the next 10 years) which could knock out U.S. power. Valid studies indicate that entire civilizations would likely erode if electric grid went down for whatever the reason."
Our national grid is vulnerable to cyber attack and/or electromagnetic pulse (EMP). This is well known by our enemies, including terrorists, and you can bet they are planning for it. Although frightening, this information is NOT new. There are available of affordable fixes. Knowing that the lives of several hundred million (~334 million) people are at risk, I have personally been warning about these vulnerabilities now for years through a number of different venues. We have known for years that our system will fail during such catastrophes – or even if only some of the impacts of a catastrophe are felt on our national electrical grid and the life-sustaining critical infrastructures that rely on the grid to function.
"[....] The fragility of the national grid was illustrated in real life in 2003 when there was a cascading power grid failure from Ohio throughout the northeastern United States and into Canada.
It left some 50 million people without power for some 30 hours and up to four days in a number of cases.
It showed real life conditions of an entire region being without water, food, transportation and other life-sustaining critical infrastructure necessities. It also showed how dysfunctional the national grid regulation was then, revealing that no central authority was in charge of operations of hundreds of power companies. [....]"
Such an event is also possible as the sun “flips” its own magnetic poles at the peak of its expected 11-year cycle by causing huge intergalactic geomagnetic storms which can affect the Earth’s grid and our communications, including satellites. During such time the sun produces flares that are sometimes huge, I such a flare from the sun hits the Earth directly, it could deliver a life-changing EMP blast. The sun's 11-year cycle started peaking a few months ago, and that will continue through 2014.
Amazingly, the electric power lobby associated with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has managed to block passage for the third time of proposed bills from Congress to address the issues. They continue to deny the reality of existential threats such as from natural or manmade electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events. For whatever reason(s), the NERC seems to be following an adage of, "Tell them you can until you can't .... then take their money and run."
In the mean time, Americans "walk the razors edge" and don't seem to even know they are doing so.
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WASHINGTON – A vulnerability test by the electric-power industry of the national grid shows the system would fail during catastrophes – or even if only some of the impacts of a catastrophe were felt.
That comes from a preliminary readout of the results of a vulnerability test called Grid Ex II of the national grid by the power industry.
It revealed that even though the test was done under circumstances that didn’t represent the full impact of what would occur in the event of a grid blackout – caused either by a cyber or an electromagnetic pulse attack – the system failed.
The North American Electric Power Reliability Corporation, or NERC, had led a nationwide exercise to examine just how vulnerable the nation’s electric power grid would be, even under a limited nationwide cyber and EMP attack.
The test, regarded by experts as presenting less of an impact than a real EMP, comes as the sun is about to “flip” its own magnetic poles at the peak of its expected 11-year cycle.
The sun flips the polarity of its magnetic north and south, causing huge intergalactic geomagnetic storms which can affect Earth’s grid, communications including satellites.
The sun 11-year cycle started peaking a few months ago, and that will continue through 2014, according to scientists of the National Aeronautic Space Administration.
Todd Hoeksema, director of the Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford University, said that the polarity change builds up throughout the 11-year cycle. The sun’s magnetic field goes to zero before coming back with the opposite polarity.
It is during that time flares sometimes are huge, and if one hit Earth directly, it could deliver a life-changing EMP blast, analysts confirm.
“Something big is about to happen on the sun,” according to an August 2013 NASA statement. At the time, Hoeksema said that this big event, the solar flip, was three to four months away – placing that time in a November-December 2013 timeframe.
When that happens, cosmic rays which are high-energy particles accelerate to nearly the speed of light by supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy that could have a major impact on the electrical grid if Earth sustained a direct hit.
As space scientists watch the effects of the solar flip, the reversal of its magnetic polarity, the utilities in the U.S. undertook the limited test of the grid called Grid Ex II.
Read the documentation that’s sparking the worry about the EMP threat, in “A Nation Forsaken.”
While the final results won’t be known until they are published months from now, experts said the impact scenario created by the drill fell far short of what would occur in the event of a real EMP – which would greatly diminish or even knock out the grid and life-sustaining critical infrastructures that rely on the grid to function.
The two-day Grid Ex II exercise revealed what Matthew Weld in the Nov. 14 New York Times said put tens of millions of Americans in simulated darkness, with hundreds of transmission lines and transformers declared damaged or destroyed and “the engineers were rushing to assess computers that were, for the purposes of the drill, tearing their system apart.”
The fragility of the national grid was illustrated in real life in 2003 when there was a cascading power grid failure from Ohio throughout the northeastern United States and into Canada.
It left some 50 million people without power for some 30 hours and up to four days in a number of cases.
It showed real life conditions of an entire region being without water, food, transportation and other life-sustaining critical infrastructure necessities. It also showed how dysfunctional the national grid regulation was then, revealing that no central authority was in charge of operations of hundreds of power companies.
That remains the case even now.
Efforts have been made in the past three sessions of Congress to give the Federal Electric Regulatory Commission, or FERC, authority over the hundreds of power companies to regulate integrated operations of the grid.
In the past three sessions, legislation such as the SHIELD Act have been introduced and passed with overwhelming support in the House. However, it never has passed the Senate.
Last June, Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., along with 24 co-sponsors, introduced the Secure High-voltage Infrastructure for Electricity from Lethal Damage Act, also known as HR 2417.
It would give the FERC the authority to protect the reliability of either the bulk power system or the defense critical electric infrastructure whenever the president issues a determination identifying an imminent grid security threat.
“The electric power lobby has managed to block passage of these bills, now proposed in the third congress in a row,” said former Ambassador Henry Cooper, who was the first director of the Strategic Defense Initiative under President George W. H. Bush and is now one of the leaders of the newly formed EMP Coalition.
“In particular, the NERC has irresponsibly denied the reality of existential threats such as from natural or manmade electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events, ” Cooper said.
“Such activities as NERC’s Grid Ex II exercise are academically interesting, but actually do little to deal with this serious threat, now well known for over a decade, including by our enemies and terrorists,” he said.
Cooper said that time is being wasted by such piecemeal exercises as Grid Ex II every other year which, he said, seems to be NERC’s anticipated pattern.
He pointed out that this most recent exercise included the use of telecommunications.
“Maybe the next one – e.g., two years from now – will examine what happens without communications, sure to be lost in an EMP event – or even (in) a competent terrorist cyberattack.”
Cooper said there are “affordable fixes” for the national electric power grid’s vulnerability.
“Cost should not be an issue,” he said. “Current estimates are that several hundred million dollars may be needed to harden the key elements of the electric power grid to EMP, to protect perhaps a trillion dollar investment…and more importantly the lives of several hundred million Americans.”
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